Carbon emissions and surface warming

This video forms part of the series “Carbon and Climate”. Scientists predict the rise in global temperatures from carbon dioxide emissions by using computer models. The video considers how different models give slightly different predictions but shows how there is a clear and simple relationship between carbon dioxide emissions and the warming of Earth: the climate change message is simple, the more carbon we emit, the warmer our climate will become.

The simple equation linking warming and carbon emission developed by Phil Goodwin and Ric Williams in

We are very grateful to the actor James Cartwright - The Archers, Downton Abbey (film), Johnny Shakespeare - for voicing all three videos in the series.

This video was made by Ocean and Climate scientists and colleagues at the University of Liverpool’s School of Environmental Sciences.

Animation, Direction and Production: Andy Heath
Narration: James Cartwright
Visual Artist: Chris Murray
Script and Principle Investigator: Ric Williams
Co Investigator: Phil Goodwin

Oceanographic research in Liverpool and the surrounding area dates back to the year 1764 when William Hutchinson began taking twice daily sea level measurements, which continued for 30 years. His records are still being used in scientific research. In 2020, Liverpool celebrates 100 years of teaching Ocean Sciences. Interested in joining us? Find our list of undergraduate and postgraduate courses in Ocean and Climate Sciences, including Marine Biology, Geography and Mathematics at

Other parts of the “Carbon and Climate” series address what happens to the carbon dioxide we emit, how the emitted carbon dioxide changes how the surface of Earth warms, and various potential warming scenarios that depend on what action we take. Or do not take.

“What happens to emitted carbon?”:
“Paris or bust”:

Other links:
Global Carbon Budget Project:
CO2 Modeller App:

The simple equation linking warming and carbon emission developed by Phil Goodwin and Ric Williams is reported in We have used this equation:

(i) to estimate how much carbon may be emitted before reaching the Paris climate agreement

(ii) explain differences in the response of climate models over the next century



and (iii) explain why there may be continued surface warming after emissions cease

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