Gretchen Harris likes the small brick house she bought in Norman, Okla., 36 years ago. She’s fond of her neighbors and the magnolia tree she planted in the front yard. And having a single-story residence proved helpful after knee replacement surgery last summer.“It’s always been a good size for me,” she said.But Ms. Harris, 72, a retired attorney, has grappled with assorted health problems — heart disease, non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma, osteoporosis, rheumatoid arthritis — and takes a long list of prescription drugs.Though she feels well enough to hear cases a few days a month as a state administrative law judge and to stay involved in educational and church activities, she worries about the future.“It weighs on my mind some,” she said. Divorced, childless and without family nearby, “I am going to need some long-term support, independent or assisted living, rather than just living by myself.”But will she be able to afford it on her income, $4,600 a month from a state pension and Social Security? Ms. Harris has no retirement savings and still pays a mortgage on her house, refinanced several times.[Like the Science Times page on Facebook. | Sign up for the Science Times newsletter.]She might be able to swing $3,425 for a one-bedroom apartment in assisted living, which an annual survey by Genworth, a financial company, says is the current Oklahoma state median. But that’s projected to hit $4,600 in 10 years; one assisted living facility in Norman is already charging $4,260 and up.Even if she sold her house, Ms. Harris calculates, she would fall short. “It’s the middle-class bind,” she said. Too much money to qualify for Medicaid or subsidized housing, but not enough to pay for long-term care, an industry that has primarily pursued the well-off.A recent analysis in Health Affairs, pointedly titled “The Forgotten Middle,” investigated how many middle-income seniors will be caught in that bind. The numbers were grim.Using data from the national Health and Retirement Study, including personal income and assets and health status, the researchers defined the middle-income cohort as Americans from the 41st to the 80th percentile in terms of financial resources.In 2029, for people 75 to 84 (ages when they’re likely to need long-term care), that would mean access to about $25,000 to $74,000 a year in current dollars. Over age 85, the middle-income category extends to $95,000.About 14.4 million people will fall into the middle-income category, almost double the current number. Sixty percent will need canes, walkers or wheelchairs to remain mobile, the analysis estimated, and 20 percent will need extensive help with the so-called activities of daily living, such as bathing and dressing.They’re a better educated and more diverse group of older adults than in the past, less likely to experience poverty. Still, most will be unable to afford assisted living, the authors found.A decade hence, 80 percent of middle-income seniors will have less than $60,000 a year in income
Many Americans Will Need Long-Term Care. Most Won’t be Able to Afford It.
Gretchen Harris likes the small brick house she bought in Norman, Okla., 36 years ago. She’s fond of her neighbors and the magnolia tree she planted in the front yard. And having a single-story residence proved helpful after knee replacement surgery last summer.“It’s always been a good size for me,” she said.But Ms. Harris, 72, a retired attorney, has grappled with assorted health problems — heart disease, non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma, osteoporosis, rheumatoid arthritis — and takes a long list of prescription drugs.Though she feels well enough to hear cases a few days a month as a state administrative law judge and to stay involved in educational and church activities, she worries about the future.“It weighs on my mind some,” she said. Divorced, childless and without family nearby, “I am going to need some long-term support, independent or assisted living, rather than just living by myself.”But will she be able to afford it on her income, $4,600 a month from a state pension and Social Security? Ms. Harris has no retirement savings and still pays a mortgage on her house, refinanced several times.[Like the Science Times page on Facebook. | Sign up for the Science Times newsletter.]She might be able to swing $3,425 for a one-bedroom apartment in assisted living, which an annual survey by Genworth, a financial company, says is the current Oklahoma state median. But that’s projected to hit $4,600 in 10 years; one assisted living facility in Norman is already charging $4,260 and up.Even if she sold her house, Ms. Harris calculates, she would fall short. “It’s the middle-class bind,” she said. Too much money to qualify for Medicaid or subsidized housing, but not enough to pay for long-term care, an industry that has primarily pursued the well-off.A recent analysis in Health Affairs, pointedly titled “The Forgotten Middle,” investigated how many middle-income seniors will be caught in that bind. The numbers were grim.Using data from the national Health and Retirement Study, including personal income and assets and health status, the researchers defined the middle-income cohort as Americans from the 41st to the 80th percentile in terms of financial resources.In 2029, for people 75 to 84 (ages when they’re likely to need long-term care), that would mean access to about $25,000 to $74,000 a year in current dollars. Over age 85, the middle-income category extends to $95,000.About 14.4 million people will fall into the middle-income category, almost double the current number. Sixty percent will need canes, walkers or wheelchairs to remain mobile, the analysis estimated, and 20 percent will need extensive help with the so-called activities of daily living, such as bathing and dressing.They’re a better educated and more diverse group of older adults than in the past, less likely to experience poverty. Still, most will be unable to afford assisted living, the authors found.A decade hence, 80 percent of middle-income seniors will have less than $60,000 a year in income
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